cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ml/post/21676181
Help make this the year that Texas flips for senate and or for president!
A bit worrying to hear so many stories of lines for early voting. I get how it’s also a good sign, but… It shouldn’t really be necessary to wait in line? If it’s bad already, won’t election day be a disaster? Are lines equally long in Republican areas?
My wife waited an hour and a friend of hers waited 2 hours to vote. She also heard several stories of people passing out in line. It’s disgraceful. This is absolutely driving down participation. I’m sure the state GOP would even say if you can’t stand in a line for over an hour while it’s sunny and high 80s maybe you just don’t care about voting that much.
A few years back the GOP closed a bunch of polling places in blue areas. It’s flagrant voter suppression.
There are usually fewer early voting locations compared to election day so with record turnout, the lines have been longer
Republican areas tend to be less densely populated, so the number of people to voting locations ratio makes lines there generally less long
You skipped the part where Republicans closed polling locations in Democrat-leaning areas. The lines are intentional on election day.
Democratic voters in Texas expect to find dirty tricks and voter suppression when they come out to vote. So they want to complete the process earlier, to leave them some backup and contingency options.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that Texas is about to flip on this cycle.
I went to vote yesterday and found a line wrapped around the building which usually has a line of only 10-20 people out the door. I’ll have to try again tomorrow, but wow!
I’m absolutely not going to bank on it, but holy shit, can you imagine the shitshow in the GOP if Texas goes blue? Like… jesus. I think that’d actually sink the modern GOP entirely.
Its been sorta expected to happen eventually. Texas is only not a swing state because of things like voter suppression. There’s only 6 states with worse turnout than Texas. If Texas had the turnout of Minnesota, it might just be a blue state.
As if the GOP has any sense of introspection.
Intended to vote yesterday, but something came up and I couldn’t. Voted today. Longest lines I’ve seen at a polling place for early voting.
I know it’s anecdote, but I’m hopeful.
Mine was really long too, and was full of a lot of women there on their own. I hope that the taking of their autonomy and rights was enough to get a lot of them out there to boost our numbers.
I voted yesterday and it was crazy busy. The absolute busiest early voting I’ve ever seen.
Does trump have a chance if he loses texas?
[e]Found a dynamic map you can play with: https://www.270towin.com/
States don’t vote in a vacuum, in any scenario where Trump loses Texas he also loses closer states.
There’s technically a mathematical possibility but if he loses Texas, his campaign is completely over
To expand on this slightly, if Harris wins Texas, that plus the blue states puts her at 266. Any one swing state would be enough to put her past 270, even Nevada which has only 6 electoral votes. So unless Trump can flip a blue state, he would have to win all the swing states.
While that scenario isn’t impossible, it’s extremely unlikely that Texas would have such a huge and unexpected surge for the Democrats while they are simultaneously having a disastrous performance everywhere else. It’s not like the Harris campaign has been dumping all of its resources into Texas, quite the opposite.
Short answer is yes. We don’t need a marginal difference, we need to be blue in lots of swing states.
How many votes did we lose by last time?
About 640k votes, 46.5% to 52.1%. It’s a tough hurdle, as he won that same percentage in 2016, although Clinton only had 43.5% and a third party probably ate some of Trump’s votes.
He’ll likely win, but by less. Its a pretty big margin, even if Trump openly pisses on military graves while Harris is a proud owner of a glock.
Note that the Senate race was closer last time in 2018 and is also closer in the polls. In 2018 that was 50.9% Cruz to 48.4% Beto (2.5% margin, ~200k votes)
My concern with early voting is it’ll make it easier for them to target democratic voters, especially if the numbers are that skewed.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4947150-texas-early-voting-turnout-record/
