What would accurate odds in the previous two presidential elections look like to you?
What would accurate odds in the previous two presidential elections look like to you?
Here is a direct quote from 538:
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.
And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?
If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?
They don’t call elections. They tell you the odds.
Do you have any examples?