Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.
I think it’s funny posts like this get downvoted when it’s just polls and statistics.
I hope it will get upvoted so more people see it and get inspired to vote!
I’m under the impression most of the people down voting would still be claiming Joe Biden is 30 years old.
…what?
What does this race have to do with Joe Biden?
What? You really have no clue that Kamala was coronated since Biden dropped out?
Who cares what impression you’re under? tRumps the current candidate with dementia. He so old and weak the polls don’t matter
the polls don’t matter
they should matter to Harris, who has the power to abandon some Biden baggage weighing her down. Like those pesky war enabling weapons shipments. But hey, if she wants to throw the election then theres nothing we voters can do to stop her. Just remember who had the chance and chose not take it, come nov 4. Its up to her now.
Polls only matter when they appear to help but not hurt? Isn’t that just playing politics?
Didn’t 538 inaccurately call the past 2 elections? Either way- vote like polls don’t exist!
They don’t call elections. They tell you the odds.
Aaaaand… weren’t they wrong the past two elections?
Someone doesn’t understand probability.
Oh I understand it just fine. Fine enough not to rely on polling to indicate anything. 538 isn’t accurate. Why is that up for debate?
Odds can’t be wrong?
If I told you that you had a five in six chance to roll the dice and not roll a one, and then you rolled the dice and got a one, was what I told you wrong?
“wrong” is a subjective call dependent on the intelligence of the observer. To some other people the answer isnt ‘wrong’ or ‘right’ its ‘I love my pickup’ or ‘boobs!’ or ‘me no like polls, they say me losing’.
Their odds predicted the past two elections wrong. What part of this is not getting through?
There wasn’t a five in six chance for the candidates during either of the previous two elections. So I’m ignoring your example.
They were wrong. Twice. Enough said.
Here is a direct quote from 538:
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
In 2016 they gave Hillary Clinton a 71.4 % chance of winning, and in 2020 they gave Joe Biden 89 % chance of winning. They are dealing in odds, not calls.
And even if it isn’t getting through to you, how were they wrong in 2020?
TBF, that would have been when Nate Silver was running the show. But he left and 538 is using a new, untested model now.
