On average, the D less R margin in the early vote mispredicted the final Clinton/Trump margin by 14 points! Pollsters get yelled at when their polls are off by even 3 points, and anything more than that is considered an absolute disaster. Imagine if a poll was off by 14 points: no one would ever listen to it again! And yet we get the same frankly amateurish analysis of the early vote in every election.
🙄
I think the youth call what you’re doing “glizzy” or something?
Nate Silver’s Political Prediction Misses:
Nate Silver’s Sports Prediction Successes:
You wanna keep going tit for tat, homie? It won’t shake out in your favor. Let’s see you show me some sports failures. I’ll keep showing you successes.
You keep showing me political successes. I’ll keep showing you failures.
Let’s see who burns out first.
Ask his wife or kids. Or just check their social media.
The dude is talented. Not in politics.
Do you mean “glazing”? Cause the homie reads as such.
I haven’t come across the term “glizzy” before so it might be new.
I don’t think you understand statistics well enough to speak on this.
2016 Presidential Election – Predicted Clinton over Trump with 71.4%.
The above for example was showing outcomes of simulations. Many polls reported way higher outcomes for Clinton and he was one of the few models showing a trump outcome and Trump’s path to victory was in the simulation results. This wasn’t a fail but a success of his model
Like when you are told that in a coin flip, heads is the outcome 51% of the time and hear every coin flip will be heads
Weirdly antagonistic tone and not sure when Silver pissed in your Wheaties, but you obviously have a hang up about him. No desire to go tit for tat, other than to say he’s been more reliably accurate over time than anyone else when it comes to politics. It’s like baseball - if you lifetime hit for .300, everyone is going to know your name.
Also, the whole point of the article is that early voting patterns are not indicative of final results. That’s not polling analysis or data modeling, that’s just historical fact. I don’t think Silver is perfect, and he’s got problematic issues, but on this point he’s just pointing out the thing the media ignores because it gives them headlines galore for the last two weeks before the election.
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I gotta weigh in on that “weirdly antagonistic tone,” too. You literally said you’d list more but you doubted that person would read it? Just antagonistic all over.
You started it!