Vietnam and Afghanistan may like to have a word with your first argument.

A bad economy will definitely weaken military strength in the long run,just like the diplomatic and trade sanctions that often are imposed on authoritarian or anti US/West regimes will. However, do you really think if we isolated these effects, the war efforts of an authoritarian government with full control over its population and production is inherently worse off than a functional democracy with broad civil rights? You may argue that this effect isolation is a hypothetical fiction, but then we’d just be talking about economies vs economies… which wasn’t my point.

No, no, I’m willing to accept this hypothetical - but in this hypothetical, the authoritarian regime is still weaker in the long run, for the reasons I laid out. Authoritarian regimes are inherently brittle, and cannot brook dissent - the higher-placed and more powerful the figure, the less dissent can be tolerated. Hence, the hollowing out of militaries - all important figures MUST be loyal above all, and competence either doesn’t matter, or is a threat insofar as it increases the power of the figure outside of the oligarchy. Economics doesn’t need to enter into it at all.

Democratic regimes have safety valves for dissent - meaningful elections. Authoritarian regimes, inherently, do not have that release. They, as JFK once said, ensure peaceful change is impossible - and in doing so, close off all possibilities except violent change. All dissident forces in an authoritarian society will end up backing ‘undesirable’ methods of change, and no one in an authoritarian regime, other than the oligarchy itself, is better placed to affect said methods of change other than the military. Either an authoritarian regime must castrate the military, or it will be overthrown (effectively or outright) by the military.

Look, friend, I’m in no way saying “therefore China wins the arms race”. I’m saying authoritarianism, in the short term, by its nature has the possibility of assigning and coordinating way more resources to war efforts than a democracy. Given 2 identical counties neighboring each other, on any given day, put a totalitarian regime on one, and a democratic government on another… Which do you think has the advantage?

Again, the democratic government.

• The democratic government has a reduced need for repression, making broad participation in the military less necessary to monitor. The number of people who are ‘political undesirables’ who must be reassigned away from positions of their competency in a total war scenario is much smaller, while a totalitarian government necessarily must prevent them from holding any important positions for its own long-term survival - and the decision-making of an oligarchy prioritizes its own long-term survival above everything, including success in war.

• The democratic government does not need to closely monitor its war output, unlike an authoritarian regime - democratic governments enjoy broad legitimacy when they are legitimately democratic, while authoritarian regimes always endure some amount of irrepressible dissent in the population that manifests itself in deliberate disobedience and sabotage of the government’s efforts - including war efforts. Furthermore, the looser controls that a democratic society holds over its production is a further advantage, as each government manager and overseer that is not needed to ensure compliance of production with the wishes of the state (unlike in a totalitarian regime, where government functionaries and strict orders are the primary means of communication of all behavior of production) is one who is free for other tasks for the war effort.

• The democratic government does not need the same level of distrust in its military figures - an authoritarian government is more at risk of a coup in wartime than any other period, as coups in an authoritarian society are easily justified by the same reasoning that the authoritarian government itself uses. Democratic governments in wartime are prone to democratic backsliding, but a significantly reduced risk of outright coups compared to authoritarian regimes, as a military coup necessarily demands a significant change from the basic and fundamental legitimizing reasoning of a democratic society - something which discourages many would-be coup plotters. This means that when General Patton asks for 99,000 troops on the north-eastern front, the demand is more likely to be fulfilled in accordance with the democratic government’s perception of military and political necessity than of the fear of those forces being turned against them - unlike, say, Prigozhin making requests of the authoritarian government or withdrawing his troops to the border of the Motherland.

Cooperation is very powerful, and it’s why democratic governments, or at least more democratic governments, have become widespread, while more naked autocracies and oligarchies have declined. Not because of some deep, moral yearning in mankind’s soul that was only awakened in the past ten seconds of civilization’s existence, but because the rise of coherent and stable national governments (as opposed to the ad hoc nature of dynasties) favors efficient methods of government, by simple process of natural selection if nothing else.

I hope you understand I’m presenting my position and arguments from a place of good faith and respect.

I do, don’t worry! I appreciate a good argument.