We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
I mostly agree, but I think the list needs Germany’s excellent Leopard (2) tanks, the modern APC variants and all their industry.
Europe also has a lot of good marine yards that can make Navy vessels and submarines.
And it can drum up drone production in a rapid tempo where needed.
What’s more, European Steel and metallurgy are out of the door of higher grade than the US, Russia and Chinese productions.
This is a boon to produce heavy armor quickly.
So when push comes to shove Europe can no doubt ramp up a unified military industry rapidly, no need for it to take a decade, and keep finances in house.
Another factor that works against the Trump economy if he thoughtlessly pulls the plug on NATO
Indeed, especially during the first Cold War, the US Military Industrial Complex was everywhere. Germany and Japan were forced to buy out dated shit from the Americans. The magical button, tell the US military to shutdown all their European military installations and leave. What would the US MIC do then? I highly doubt they want to lose business.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Yeah, and the EU should immediately step up, and triplicate support for Ukraine.
We (Europe) already did most of the heavy lifting for Ukraine. The US mostly gave old stockpiles of weapons that they would’ve needed to destroy anyway. We are the ones actually paying cash to keep them afloat.
The problem is, in the post-WW2 order, our defense and our defense industry was made dependent on the USA by design. And even up until last November, Europe didn’t want to challenge this arrangement and just went full steam ahead with this arrangement, ordering US made weapons. I think Europe was in denial that Biden could lose or that NATO could ever end.
Only France, and to a limited extent, Sweden and Turkey, have independent defense industries.
In the future, we will have it again. And Ukraine will actually be a key player.
But in the short term, there is no magical button to press that can produce the arms.
Undoing decades of integration isn’t going to be easy.
I mostly agree, but I think the list needs Germany’s excellent Leopard (2) tanks, the modern APC variants and all their industry.
Europe also has a lot of good marine yards that can make Navy vessels and submarines.
And it can drum up drone production in a rapid tempo where needed.
What’s more, European Steel and metallurgy are out of the door of higher grade than the US, Russia and Chinese productions. This is a boon to produce heavy armor quickly.
So when push comes to shove Europe can no doubt ramp up a unified military industry rapidly, no need for it to take a decade, and keep finances in house. Another factor that works against the Trump economy if he thoughtlessly pulls the plug on NATO
I do agree, but it does take 3-5 years, unless the EU is willing to turn into a wartime economy. But the political will for that is just not there.
If there will be a serious large-scale attack directly against EU as a whole, the politic will will appear.
You just made all of the points that I was thinking about.
Indeed, especially during the first Cold War, the US Military Industrial Complex was everywhere. Germany and Japan were forced to buy out dated shit from the Americans. The magical button, tell the US military to shutdown all their European military installations and leave. What would the US MIC do then? I highly doubt they want to lose business.
Putin is going to make a hard move into the baltics during Trump’s first 2 years, including NATO countries. And Europe won’t be able to do shit about it. They need defenses now and European leadership needs to fast track it.
you talk as if Europe doesn’t have agency, or a military.
they do. they have gaps in their capability that have been created by the departure of US. and they no longer have the overwhelming advantage against Russia, but the thing is Russia will still get absolutely smoked.
the only thing that has changed, is it will be a far bloodier fight. Europe and America are both casualty averse. the prospect of things like Bucha Mariupol and Irpin happening in their cities, the population isnt ready for that.
(And to be clear, what happened in those towns and cities were a crime against humanity, after what Russia did there the Ukrainians understood very well this is a genocidal total war, its kill or be killed, and I dont think Europe has understood thats what its going to be.)
Triple*