The World3, global system dynamics model projects global food production peaking this decade. That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s for certain what’s going to happen. It’s only a projection, and only one model, but I think it’s an important model. It’s a projection based on the assumption that there are physical limits to growth. That assumption seems pretty irrefutably true to me. There is a finite amount of energy and other resources available to us on the planet, seems inevitable that we will hit some hard limit(s), eventually. The World3 is an attempt to project when we might hit those limits, and, if the World3 projection is accurate, it might be soon.
I’ve seen people dismiss this as an old, out of date prediction from the 70s, unaware that… its been revisited and updated, and is tracking reality … scarily accurately, basically.
(Recalibration23 is this paper, BAU is an older, but still fairly recent recalibration of the World3 model.)
So basically, we, right now, are either at, very close to, or have already surpassed:
Peak Industrial Output
Peak Food Production
Peak Human Population
These things all rapidly decline, or collapse, starting basically now.
HWI = Human Welfare Index.
The average living human in 2035 will have a quality of life comparable to the average human in about 1965.
Average human QoL in 2050 will be comparable to average human QoL during the Great Depression / WW2.
The World3, global system dynamics model projects global food production peaking this decade. That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s for certain what’s going to happen. It’s only a projection, and only one model, but I think it’s an important model. It’s a projection based on the assumption that there are physical limits to growth. That assumption seems pretty irrefutably true to me. There is a finite amount of energy and other resources available to us on the planet, seems inevitable that we will hit some hard limit(s), eventually. The World3 is an attempt to project when we might hit those limits, and, if the World3 projection is accurate, it might be soon.
Oh good, you posted an updated version!
I’ve seen people dismiss this as an old, out of date prediction from the 70s, unaware that… its been revisited and updated, and is tracking reality … scarily accurately, basically.
(Recalibration23 is this paper, BAU is an older, but still fairly recent recalibration of the World3 model.)
So basically, we, right now, are either at, very close to, or have already surpassed:
Peak Industrial Output
Peak Food Production
Peak Human Population
These things all rapidly decline, or collapse, starting basically now.
HWI = Human Welfare Index.
The average living human in 2035 will have a quality of life comparable to the average human in about 1965.
Average human QoL in 2050 will be comparable to average human QoL during the Great Depression / WW2.
… Good luck everybody! Have fun at work today!